How marketers can model human behaviour

Understanding human behaviour is one of the most important skills in marketing or any other career profession. It helps people to set the scene for life, and importantly, understand fundamental aspects of decision-making such as why people can say things they don’t mean or do things they’re not aware of.

Within this guide, we’ll explain why human behaviour is so difficult to predict, why it will never be possible to predict entirely and how behavioural models can be used to make marketing more effective. There’s a lot to cover, so let’s get into it.

To posit that human behaviour is unpredictable may sound obvious, but it can be easily forgotten in today’s marketing environments, where data sets are increasingly used to predict human behaviour. This has sparked much debate and led to the notoriety and controversy surrounding films like The Great Hack and The Social Dilemma.

Yet, let’s take a step back for a moment. The use of data based technologies and algorithms is unquestionably significant, but it’s questionable to suggest that they determine human behaviour entirely. A loyalty scheme may improve sales, but it won’t perfectly explain what consumers buy and when. Equally, a retargeting campaign can increase clicks and purchases, but case studies reveal that the increase won’t be so dramatic that every returning visitor instantly makes a purchase. Furthermore, the infinite scroll within a social media app may hook users, but they won’t stay forever.

In fact, what tends to happen is that customers naturally become habituated to new things over time: They subsequently own multiple loyalty cards, notice how annoying retargeting campaigns can become and quickly become exhausted by every social media innovation.

Behavioural science provides an essential way for marketers to make sense of the data they collect. This is because, by understanding what makes us human, it’s possible to go beyond the data and the revenue forecasts to understand how consumers act in particular circumstances.

To understand this, it’s possible to evaluate the key factors that make us human and then develop principles for how they operate. For example, it is common knowledge that our behaviour is affected by our emotions, environment and personal circumstances. Behavioural scientists investigate how these work together to better predict human behaviour.

Behavioural modelling is a process that behavioural scientists and behavioural economists use to predict human behaviour. For example, a simple model might predict that people feel, then think, then act. A marketer may subsequently use this to increase their focus on the emotional impact of the site and therefore its look and feel, before considering whether its messaging resonates with customers. They can then run A/B tests to see.

In reality, there are many models, many of which are extremely specific to particular tasks. For example, the marketing funnel is a model that is so commonly used that marketers may not even realise that it is a behavioural model. It presents a process that customers go through before making a purchase; awareness, consideration, conversion, loyalty.

A model of this nature is difficult to validate with data, however. This is because it is based on basic logic of human behaviour as opposed to how it works in practice. For example, it’s difficult to assess when awareness first happens, which leads to challenges surrounding attribution. Furthermore, a customer may make a purchase with little or no consideration. However, without the marketing funnel as a guide, the data alone would be difficult to analyse.

Of course, each marketing problem requires a specific behavioural model. And for this reason, there are models of increasing complexity such as those use to define audience mindset or purchasing intention.

Behavioural models only provide a theoretical framework, which means they aren’t proven and are open to interpretation. This can be seen using the marketing funnel, which is presented in many ways, each of which has different stages and terms.

This is relevant because most models are developed through experience as opposed to scientific analysis. As a result, many marketers, and agencies follow their own processes and practices. Behavioural science can therefore increase their validity by adding scientific principles.

For example, nudge theory combines the knowledge of marketing with conditioning to posit that people will purchase more when presented with carefully selected cues. This assertion can be tested in the marketing arena as well as in scientific circles. However, even this can be debated as being unique from other models of behaviour.

Behavioural economics also has an important role to play when it comes to modelling human behaviour, as it helps marketers to move from a biological standpoint to a market based one. In other words, behavioural scientists may be experts in understanding the underlying biological mechanisms that shape behaviour, but they are less likely to understand their impact on a wider economic system.

Behavioural economists can create models by considering the economic data for how society operates, based on human influence in society. For example, a response to inflation may be to increase interest rates, which may have a natural influence on human behaviour and consumer spending. These relationships can be asserted with little or no understanding of human psychology. 

We hope you’re inspired

If you’re interested in learning more, then you may be interested in our guide to behavioural science. For anything further, please feel free to arrange a call.